The United States Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s September decision on interest rates was entirely expected, with the FOMC holding rates at the current level of 5.25% to 5.5%. As also expected, the committee indicated there may be another rate hike coming this year, with Chairman Jerome Powell insisting — as usual — in his Sept. 20 press conference that the job of getting inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target is in “no way done.”

What was more of a surprise, however, is the fact that the Fed raised its long-term forecast for the Federal Funds Rate, which they now see as standing at 5.1% by the end of 2024 — up from June’s prediction of 4.6% — before falling to 3.9% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026. These numbers are notably higher than previous forecasts and indicate a “higher for longer” scenario for U.S. interest rates that not too many market participants were expecting.